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krichard2011|2014-9-28 13:20
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話說99W 又重新發布TCFA 了 @@
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4N 159.9E TO 14.0N 152.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N
158.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
159.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SMALL, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROAD,
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 272304Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
PTPN, 180NM SOUTH, SHOW LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. |
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