CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1.5
DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1.0
CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER 1
MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1.5
TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) 0.0
PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1.5
CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER 2
FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1.5
WTPN21 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 113.8E TO 20.9N 107.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8N 113.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.2N 114.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.3E, APPROXIMATELY
270 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD TURNING. A 011320Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER THE ELONGATED CENTER AND
FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING IN. WINDS ARE STRONGER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE BORDER OF A HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AREA (25-35 KTS) TO THE SOUTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE, 30-32 CELSIUS, BUT THERE IS MARGINAL DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
NEAR TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022100Z.
//
NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 011430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011430Z-020600ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.4N 114.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.7E, APPROXIMATELY
247 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 011054Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE CONFIRMS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND THAT THE
CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20
KNOTS). THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT THERE IS A
DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INVEST 96W TRACKING WESTWARD AND
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
