0908morakot

命名報
預估會達到MH

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 120831
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.1W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.1W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 100.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.4N 102.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 105.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.8N 109.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 110.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 101.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

t02436

稍早04Z風場掃出35~40節
06Z速報直接評價40節並命名Dolores

EP, 05, 2015071206,   , BEST,   0, 143N, 1005W,  40, 1002, TS,  34, NEQ,  120,  120,   50,   90, 1009,  180,  55,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,    DOLORES, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 010,

t02436

NHC編號05E
暫時上望75節
將沿墨國西南外海北上

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 111437
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2015

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  98.9W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  98.9W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  98.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.0N 100.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.4N 102.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.6N 104.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.4N 111.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N  98.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

jwpk9899

TCFA