jwpk9899

命名Freda
WTPS11 NFFN 281800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A08 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 28/1801 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 160.3E AT
281700 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRNOMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE TO SOUTH. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0, MET AND
PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YEILDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT THEN SOUTH
WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 290500 UTC 12.3S 159.9E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 291700 UTC 12.9S 159.9E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 300500 UTC 13.7S 159.9E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 301700 UTC 14.5S 160.0E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC FREDA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 282000 UTC.

阿隆

martin191919

94P become 05P

frintezza

老美已評為30kts了, 看雲圖螺旋性已經很美

fms出了路徑圖, 並預測明日凌晨時分就會命名, 3天後會升至3級旋風(64-85 kts)

jwpk9899

TCFA!!
WTPS21 PGTW 271430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 163.8E TO 12.0S 161.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 271200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2S 163.7E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5S
163.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 163.7E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST
OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 270914Z SSMIS PASS.
THE LLCC LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS, INCLUDING GFS AND NOGAPS,
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281430Z.//
NNNN

阿隆

martin191919

upgraded to MEDIUM;P

阿隆

晚間JTWC評價為LOW(升格速度比預期慢,因昨編號之際螺旋還蠻帥的說;P)
對了~下圖可見94P雲系勢力已向上擴展到赤道以北,若94P能順利增強形成廣大不穩定帶,西太仍不排除會有擾動再生成...

就傍晚最近的"底層"看來,若要變成氣旋還是要很拼才行:o