簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-9-3 21:14
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13Z提升評級至Medium
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
136.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LLCC. A
031023Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10
TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A
TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH SUSTAINING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION,
AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ALSO ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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