簽到天數: 815 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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martin191919|2013-9-11 22:02
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TCFA
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.4N 147.8E TO 22.0N 142.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
111330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N
146.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2N
145.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111157Z
METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
HOWEVER, A 110220Z OCEANSAT IMAGE AND A 111200Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH WEAK CORE WINDS (10 TO
15 KNOTS) AND STRONGER PERIPHERAL WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS, TYPICAL
OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
LACK OF DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KTS)
AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ENHANCED BY A POINT SOURCE OVER THE
CENTER AND TWO LARGE TUTT CELLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEVELOPMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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