本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-25 22:24 編輯 基本資料 編號 : 91 E 擾動編號日期:2014 年 05 月 17 日 04 時 消散日期 :2 ...
取消TCFATHIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 181400). |
麻友飯 發表於 2014-5-18 22:19 High是JTWC的 NHC還是維持Low 等等11AM就會再發報 到時再看看有無升評 NHC標準比較嚴格 An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles |
TCFA+HIGH WTPN21 PHNC 181400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4N 109.5W TO 11.8N 116.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 109.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N 109.6W, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180504Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WHILE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO LOW (05 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 191400Z.// NNNN |
再度降評LowA broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 沒有乾空氣問題但頭頂10N就有強風切 |
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-5-17 07:44 編輯 這次是NRL偷跑 比NHC早編… 剛剛升評Medium Satellite data indicate that a low pressure system has developed |
參與人數 1 | 水氣能量 +10 | 收起 理由 |
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krichard2011 | + 10 | 贊一個! |