TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.05S
176.0E AT 150600UTC. TD17F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE OVER SUPPOSE LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WESTWARD THAN SOUTHWARDS WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
JTWC直接評級Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5S 175.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING. A 151011Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
FRAGMENTED, CURVED BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO AN ILL-DEFINED
CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD FIJI WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
