1601 尼伯特最強首颱即侵台台東陣風57.2m/s破紀錄

t02436 · 2016-7-2 20:59

JMA發布GW!

熱帯低気圧
平成28年07月02日21時55分発表

<02日21時の実況>
大きさ       -
強さ       -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域       カロリン諸島
中心位置       北緯 8度20分(8.3度)
東経 145度05分(145.1度)
進行方向、速さ       ほとんど停滞
中心気圧       1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速       15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速       23m/s(45kt)

<03日21時の予報>
強さ       -
存在地域       カロリン諸島
予報円の中心       北緯 9度50分(9.8度)
東経 143度30分(143.5度)
進行方向、速さ       北西ゆっくり
中心気圧       1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速       18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速       25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径       200km(110NM)

ben811018 · 2016-7-2 18:42

【熱帶性低氣壓９９Ｗ：TCFA 熱帶氣旋形成警報】
　討論區：http://goo.gl/WZQFpE

聯合颱風警報中心（美軍ＪＴＷＣ）已針對熱帶性低氣壓９９Ｗ發出ＴＣＦＡ熱帶氣旋形成警報！
　
以目前資料研判，９９Ｗ將沿著太平洋高氣壓邊緣偏西北進行，初期整合階段移動速度較慢，逐漸整合後在高壓穩定導引下移動速度也會逐漸加快。９９Ｗ所處的大氣環境相當適合發展且海溫也偏高，成為今年第一號颱風「尼伯特」的機會大。
　
至於是否影響台灣，仍須視高壓強弱而定，目前雖有部分數值預報顯示將直接侵襲台灣，但各數值預報的看法仍然分歧，整體來說下週後期靠近台灣的機會相當高。

blackcat · 2016-7-2 14:46

本帖最後由 blackcat 於 2016-7-2 17:08 編輯

00Z 120hr

EC

GFS

比較一下差異
之後北上是共識只差在哪裡北上

補個好久不見的EC系集
eemn.2016070200.wpac.gif

jwpk9899 · 2016-7-2 14:44

TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 020630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 144.5E TO 9.5N 142.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 144.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020220Z GCOM
36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATE A CORE OF 20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WITH ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS WELL
TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030630Z.//
NNNN

jwpk9899 · 2016-7-2 12:39

GFS連續多報預測登陸台灣似乎沒有改的打算@@
雲圖模擬颱風本身環流不小但核心集中在台灣上預估登陸後會卡台灣一段時間
不過目前99W整體結構還在調整應該再過2~3天會比較確定是否會接近甚至侵襲台灣

t02436 · 2016-7-2 10:46

JMA升格熱帶低壓。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.

tpm630 · 2016-7-2 10:33

本帖最後由 tpm630 於 2016-7-2 10:39 編輯

99W渦度已逐漸提升，目前高層流出良好、風切尚可，跨赤道氣流也相當旺盛。
不過JTWC則認為可能逐漸受東北側冷心低壓影響，發展稍減緩。

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 144.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED. A 011205Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE CONFIRMS
THERE IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 12 TO 17 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A GOOD ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.