B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 144.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED. A 011205Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE CONFIRMS
THERE IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 12 TO 17 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A GOOD ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
