(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.0N 138.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 128.2E, APPROXIMATELY 540
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DISTINCT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A
231659Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A BROAD LLCC WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A ROBUST OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, LAND
INTERACTION WILL BECOME A HINDRANCE AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MIXED WITH
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED AND A 210824Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
FLARING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A BROAD LLCC TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
