02S.Yvette 發展不如預期逐漸消散

s6815711 · 2016-12-19 07:09

本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2016-12-25 18:06 編輯

  一級熱帶氣旋
編號：07 U ( 02 S )
名稱：Yvette

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2016 年 12 月 19 日 06 時
JTWC升格日期: 2016 年 12 月 20 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 12 月 21 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 12 月 25 日 16 時
登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速 /海平面最低氣壓
澳洲氣象局 (BoM) :  40 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC): 45 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：987 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
91S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.15S.116.4E

以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

s6815711 · 2016-12-25 20:03

BoM已於下午將Yvette撤編

s6815711 · 2016-12-25 11:57

本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-2-7 11:38 編輯

Ex-Cyclone Yvette is near to crossing the west Kimberley coast near Broome as a weak low.

已經在西澳沿海
BoM表示會Yvette會以比較弱的強度登陸位於金伯利(Kimberley)的布魯姆(Broome)附近

s6815711 · 2016-12-23 20:59

命名後約兩天受到環境影響
強度減弱 BoM降格為EX-TC
對流分布也和剛命名時形成強烈對比
上面是12Z的圖在07Z時對流一度消失殆盡
原地滯留太久 OHC略有降低
不過隨著離開地雷區還有一天半的時間可以發展
再度增強至一級熱帶氣旋的機會也不低

ben811018 · 2016-12-23 12:24

預計在六日之間登陸，
不過登陸點附近人煙罕至
影響有限~

s6815711 · 2016-12-22 15:40

本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2016-12-22 15:43 編輯

又經過一天的發展
受到南方乾空氣的影響
強度僅微幅增強
原先上望的二級熱帶氣旋強度也被下修

Meow · 2016-12-21 17:00

已命名Yvette。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0657 UTC 21/12/2016
Name: Tropical Cyclone Yvette
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.5S
Longitude: 114.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: Slow moving
Speed of Movement: Slow moving
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  21/1200: 14.5S 114.2E:    040 [080]:  040  [075]:  988
+12:  21/1800: 14.4S 114.4E:    055 [100]:  045  [085]:  985
+18:  22/0000: 14.2S 114.3E:    065 [125]:  045  [085]:  985
+24:  22/0600: 14.1S 114.4E:    080 [145]:  045  [085]:  985
+36:  22/1800: 13.7S 114.8E:    100 [180]:  050  [095]:  982
+48:  23/0600: 13.9S 115.7E:    120 [220]:  050  [095]:  983
+60:  23/1800: 14.3S 116.9E:    140 [255]:  055  [100]:  980
+72:  24/0600: 16.0S 117.9E:    155 [290]:  060  [110]:  977
+96:  25/0600: 18.8S 120.0E:    200 [370]:  060  [110]:  975
+120: 26/0600: 21.6S 122.8E:    290 [535]:  025  [045]:  999
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Yvette has developed to the north of Western Australia.

The system was located using an ASCAT pass at 0133 UTC and the latest visible
imagery.

Deep convection developed overnight and persisted during the morning and early
afternoon to the northwest and southwest of the centre.

Using a shear pattern DTs of 3.0 were obtained with the centre <0.5 from edge.
MET was 3.0 with a recent D trend. PAT was 3.0. FT/CI set to 3.0 with intensity
set to 40 knots.
CIMSS ADT had a CI of 3.5 at 0500 UTC. NESDIS ADT was 3.1 at 0400 UTC.

The ASCAT pass at 0133 UTC showed gales wrapping around the centre in the
southwest and northwest quadrants with no information in the other quadrants.

Recent motion continues to be slow.

Shear analysis at 00 UTC showed strong shear from the ENE [-30 knots], there is
upper level divergence over southern quadrants only and wind fields show little
outflow in northern quadrants. Shear may decrease later on Wednesday or on
Thursday, allowing conditions to become more favourable for development. SSTs
are around 29C with 29C to 31C along the forecast track.

The system is expected to be slow moving before tracking towards the southeast
from Friday and approaching the Pilbara/West Kimberley coast over the Christmas
weekend. There is considerable model variation on the movement and intensity of
the system, particularly in the longer term. The movement of a tropical low over
the Kimberley, then through central parts of WA may influence the development
and track of 07U.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1330 UTC by Perth TCWC.

澳洲不用西北澳，因為有個州就叫西澳。