(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.1N 150.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.3N 148.9E, APPROXIMATELY 353
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151157Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY
DEFINED LLCC. A 151158Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
WITH VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
AID DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.0N
153.5E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132337Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 132336Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED AROUND THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NAVGEM
INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATING WEAKER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
