霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.8S 58.5E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261107Z SSMI 85
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME MITIGATING NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 48 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.