底層發展一直沒有很好 , 加上OHC不足夠.




大概就這樣了
GFS其實看看就好 = =

原先預測是個猛爆型的 , 結果底層一直鳥樣 , 環境再好也無用. 人算不如天算的例子

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 018-03-05_1013Z.jpg

TPXS10 PGTW 050910
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE)
B. 05/0830Z
C. 21.48S
D. 51.38E
E. THREE/MET8
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   05/0336Z  20.68S  50.98E  MMHS
   05/0531Z  21.05S  51.22E  GPMI
   RICHARDSON

TPXS10 PGTW 041827 A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE)B. 04/1800ZC. 19.36SD. 50.66EE. THREE/MET8F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRSG. IR/EIRH. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AGREES WITH DT YIELDING A 4.0. PT YIELDS A 4.5. DBO PT.I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:   04/1459Z  19.12S  50.55E  WIND   04/1540Z  19.03S  50.60E  SSMS   04/1621Z  19.18S  50.52E  MMHS   LEMBKE

MFR 12Z升熱帶氣旋。

ZCZC 584
WTIO30 FMEE 041230 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (DUMAZILE)
2.A POSITION 2018/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 50.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY    DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 410 SW: 300 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW:
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/05 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/03/05 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/03/06 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/03/06 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/03/07 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/07 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/08 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/09 12 UTC: 38.1 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-
NNNN