霧峰追風者

JTWC 21Z評級提升至Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6S 171.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 173.1E, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM WEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301756Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
AND ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH A FORMATIVE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS) ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
THAT 97P WILL DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUTSIDE OF 24 HOURS, BUT VARY IN THE TIMING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z評級LOW

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.6S 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM EAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300423Z SSMIS 91
89GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE SHOW A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) ARE SUPPORTIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 97P WILL DEVELOP
FURTHER AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS, BUT VARY IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE INTENSITY TREND. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

FMS 編號12F。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 292320 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.3S
171.6E AT 292100UTC. TD12F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWRI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
SUPPOSED LLLC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.  

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.