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霧峰追風者|2018-5-31 14:16
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JTWC 05Z評級LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N
119.6E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH LARGE AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED ON ALL
SIDES. A 310140Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED AND SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (31+ CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST,
BUT NONE ARE IN AGREEMENT HOW FAST IT WILL BEGIN MOVING IN THAT
DIRECTION OR IF/WHEN IT WILL INTENSIFY. NAVGEM, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT YET INITIALIZE THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
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