t02436

評級提升至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.3N 133.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY
353 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A PARTIAL 051004Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC AND A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS LESSENED (5 TO 10 KNOTS), ALLOWING THE
LLCC TO BEGIN TO TUCK UNDER THE CONVECTION. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
GOOD BUT THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW 98W TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MINOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

t02436

JMA 00Z升TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 20N 133E WNW SLOWLY.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.2N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 528 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED CONVECTION,
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 032123Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
THE DISORGANIZED AND WEAK CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH WEAK BUT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GFS,
NAVGEM, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW 98W DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE MOST
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.