霧峰追風者

評級提升至Medium，看好發展。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 70.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1113
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051617Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS
TROUGHING WITH AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT WITH A
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8N
70.6E, APPROXIMATELY 900 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041342Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION WITH AN ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO
THE CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE
NEXT 48-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.