zjk369

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 164.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 163.1E, APPROXIMATELY
1125 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200211Z GMI 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
POCKETS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

JMA 00Z判定為LPA，數值持續看好發展

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 09N 164E WEST SLOWLY

(補JTWC---Low圖)

zjk369

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.2N
164.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1212 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE
DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH IN THE
NEXT 48-60 HOURS, HOWEVER DIFFER ON TRAJECTORY. THE EUROPEAN MODELS
ALONG WITH NAVGEM MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY WHILE GFS DEVELOPS
THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF SAIPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z評級Low