周子堯@FB

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4S
89.1E, APPROXIMATELY 1005 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO A FORMATIVE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS ARE WARM (27-29C) IN THE EQUATORIAL
INDIAN OCEAN AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAK DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY OCCURRING IN THE LATE
TAUS AS THE SYSTEM TAKES A MEANDERING TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.