jrchang5

JTWC已於12111800Z提升評級為Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 87.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 542
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 111552Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH
SPARSE CONVECTION THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS THAT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 24HRS, BEING OFFSET BY ADEQUATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM 28C TO 30C ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING 94B REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF
THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jrchang5

JTWC於12070800Z評級Low。有部分模式指出，此系統在原地短期滯留後，將逐漸北上趨近印度東岸。

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.3N
87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070326Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 061554Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND A
SMALL AREA OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM,
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT, WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.