(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10S
164E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281820Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED, WITH FORMATIVE UPPER LEVEL
BANDING. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITHIN 36 TO 60 HOURS AND
TRACKING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
