老農民版夜神月

JTWC92W1712Z最新定位於

3.4°N 166.5°E

風場圖顯示系統本身已有20KT左右的實力

惟中心仍狹長,尚需一段時間整合發展


GFS雖然經常高估強度,但最近預測路徑能力表現不差,值得一看
ㄓ

整體螺旋性亦可從雲圖上見到有愈來愈佳的趨勢

霧峰追風者

JTWC 13Z評級提升至"MEDIUM"。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.2N 166.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, APPROXIMATELY 237
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN.
A 170712Z WINDSAT 37GHZ SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION EXTENDING
NORTH FROM THE LLC WITH FORMATIVE MID-LEVEL BANDIND. A 171040Z METOP-
B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20
KNOT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W
WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CURVING TO
THE NORTH AND BEGINNING QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N
166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM EAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A FULLY-
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 160244Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 151012Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A VERY
WEAK, ELONGATED LLC. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL BE
ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRACK WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1606Z報中將92W評為Low

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N
166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM EAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A FULLY-
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 160244Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 151012Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A VERY
WEAK, ELONGATED LLC. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL BE
ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRACK WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.