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霧峰追風者|2019-3-20 07:16
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本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-3-20 21:44 編輯
JTWC 18Z首報,上望105kts。WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190251ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.2S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.5S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.9S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.9S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.9S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.6S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.3S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 119.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191743Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED UNDER OR JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CORE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5
TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EVIDENT NEAR 95E IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE STR
EAST OF THE SYSTEM IN A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION, WHICH WILL
TURN TC 21S ON A MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 120. AFTER
TAU 72, A STRONG, BROAD LOW-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW THE SYSTEM ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND PRODUCE A WESTWARD TRACK CHANGE
AFTER TAU 120. THIS COULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER OR NEAR LEARMONTH.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS ERRONEOUSLY RECURVING THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL HIGH, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 175NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 120 DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING, COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 21S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105
KNOTS EXPECTED BY TAU 72 THEN SLIGHT WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM NEARS
THE COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190300).//
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