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1908 范斯高 高緯西行橫掃日本九州 出海後再襲南韓

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[LV.5]常住居民I

天篷大元帥|2019-8-2 09:41 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 天篷大元帥 於 2019-8-2 09:49 編輯

日本氣象廳:颱風第8號(范斯高)
上看65節。
(以下除雲圖在https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09W/flash-vis-long.html外,其餘為該機構資料)
台風第8号 (フランシスコ)
令和元年08月02日10時30分 発表

<02日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
中心位置        北緯 19度35分(19.6度)
東経 153度05分(153.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 330km(180NM)

<03日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 24度05分(24.1度)
東経 148度55分(148.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        130km(70NM)

<04日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
予報円の中心        北緯 27度05分(27.1度)
東経 143度00分(143.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧        985hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速        40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 280km(150NM)

<05日09時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        日本の南
予報円の中心        北緯 29度50分(29.8度)
東経 136度05分(136.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 30km/h(17kt)
中心気圧        975hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径        330km(180NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 410km(220NM)

<06日09時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        西日本
予報円の中心        北緯 32度00分(32.0度)
東経 129度55分(129.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        975hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径        480km(260NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 560km(300NM)

<07日09時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        黄海
予報円の中心        北緯 34度25分(34.4度)
東経 125度00分(125.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        975hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径        650km(350NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 750km(400NM)


范斯高#1

范斯高#1

范斯高雲圖

范斯高雲圖
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-8-2 06:54 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC01/18Z升格09W,首報預測將侵襲西日本,巔峰上望70KT
WTPN32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 153.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 153.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.9N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.6N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.5N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.1N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.3N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 32.7N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 153.0E.
01AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
501 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND
022100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

wp0919.gif 09W_011800sair.jpg
8265c895d143ad4bc4dd1c148c025aafa60f06cc.jpg 09W_gefs_latest.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-8-1 21:25 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA發布GW
熱帯低気圧
令和元年08月01日22時25分 発表

<01日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        南鳥島の南約650km
中心位置        北緯 18度20分(18.3度)
東経 154度05分(154.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<02日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島の南西約360km
予報円の中心        北緯 22度00分(22.0度)
東経 151度30分(151.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        190km(100NM)

b-00.png

JTWC同步發布TCFA
wp9319.gif

20190801.1310.himawari-8.ircolor.93W.INVEST.20kts.1003mb.19.2N.153.6E.100pc.jpg

點評

這顆應該是8號-范斯高  發表於 2019-8-1 22:15
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-8-1 17:25 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA06Z率先升格93W為TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 18N 154E NW SLOWLY
19080112.png 19080115.png


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-8-1 14:44 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC01/0600Z報中將評級提升為Medium
ABPW10 PGTW 010600
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.5N 152.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY
607 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010420Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, WEAK
LLC. RECENT ASCAT INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 KNOT WINDS
AND ISOLATED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WITH A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (28-30C) IN THE VICINITY OF 93W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
未命名0701.png vis0801-lalo.gif


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-7-30 09:29 | 顯示全部樓層
評級LOW。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.1N 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 376 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 291913Z SSMIS
F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS A LINE OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD AND FOLLOWING THE AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL WAVE FEATURE. A
291103Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL WAVE FEATURE WITH
A SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE. 93W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27 TO 28 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
93W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 72
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW
.
abpwsair.jpg

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