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05A.Maha 曾與Kyarr阿拉伯海罕見雙旋並立

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

2019-10-26 15:33 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2019-12-9 22:43 編輯

  極強氣旋風暴  
編號:ARB 04 ( 05 A )
名稱 : Maha



  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 10 26 14
JTWC升格日期:2019 10 30 17
命名日期  :2019 10 31 02
撤編日期  :2019 11
12 11
登陸地點  :



  巔峰時期資料  
中心最強風速

印度氣象局 ( IMD ):100 kt ( ESCS )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):105 kts ( Cat.3 )
海平面最低氣壓:956 百帕


  過去路徑圖  
  擾動編號資料  
99B INVEST 191026 0600 7.4N 87.0E IO 15 0
150229ze0ttcxxc88h0eca.jpg

以上資料來自:IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作





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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-7 16:50 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-11-7 17:02 編輯

IMD判定Maha已減弱為強低氣壓(Deep Depression)
0a6b269759ee3d6d46730abe4c166d224e4adee0.jpg e26e9b504fc2d562e0405d98e81190ef77c66cd5.jpg
e3cfa9014c086e06e312b23e0d087bf40bd1cbe0.jpg e84a8701a18b87d6d3c8266a080828381e30fd90.jpg
vis02.gif


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-11-5 10:31 | 顯示全部樓層
兩大機構18Z都評價100節,顛峰已過。
tcacgraphic.png
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20191104/1800Z
TC: MAHA
NR: 22
PSN: N1918 E06342
MOV: NNE03KT
C: 0956HPA
MAX WIND: 100KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 05/0000Z N1936 E06348
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 95 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 05/0600Z N1948 E06406
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 85KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 05/1200Z N2000 E06442
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 75KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 05/1800Z N2006 E06536
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 65KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191105/0300Z
TOO: 040155HRS IST

MAHA0418TRACK.png

MAHA0418.png

JTWC MAX:105
io052019.20191105021628.gif

2019IO05_4KMIRIMG_201911041830.gif

3Dsecsw_nhc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-4 16:26 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD亦升格ESCS,預測24H內強度將達巔峰100KT
586d5bb5c9ea15cef237fe7db9003af33b87b2bb.png 0815fbf2b2119313606be6c46a380cd791238d74.png
68ac828ba61ea8d3e3b06a70980a304e241f588d.png

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-4 00:55 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC定強已達85節,預計24H內將達C3,而JTWC15Z最新德法亦已達5.5
WTIO32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 65.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 65.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.1N 64.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 18.6N 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 19.0N 63.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 19.4N 63.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 20.1N 67.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 21.3N 71.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 65.4E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 7NM
EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A
031053Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A
SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05A IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA ERODING THE STR,
WHICH REGRESSES WESTWARD. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WILL PRODUCE AN ABRUPT
EASTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL VORTEX
TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. TC 05A SHOULD PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND
INCREASINGLY HIGHER VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN
TPIO11 PGTW 031526

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA)

B. 03/1500Z

C. 17.83N

D. 65.61E

E. ONE/MET8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN
io0519.gif 05A_031200sair.jpg
20191103.1530.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.05AMAHA.80kts-979mb-177N-657E.100pc.jpg 05A.gif



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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-10-31 02:21 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD升格氣旋風暴,命名Maha
FKIN21 DEMS 301525
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20191030/1200Z
TC: MAHA
NR: 01
PSN: N0900 E07406
MOV: NW13KT
C: 0998HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 30/1800Z N1000 E07330
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 040 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 31/0000Z N1054 E07254
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 045KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 31/0600Z N1154 E07224
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 050KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 31/1200Z N1254 E07148
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 55KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191030/2030Z
TOO: 302050 HRS IST
003413wiwwbuhyvd8euurx.png #!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-RAMMB-HTM153390468.jpg
#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-RAMMB-HTM153425531.jpg


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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-10-30 17:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC跳過TCFA,直接升格05A.強度上望85節不封頂
WTIO32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z --- NEAR 8.8N 74.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 74.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 10.8N 73.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 12.6N 72.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 14.3N 71.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 15.7N 70.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 17.7N 67.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 18.3N 65.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 18.2N 62.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 74.5E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN 300507Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
AND ON A 300600Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY 35 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN THE ASCAT DATA. TC 05A HAS
CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS), FAVORABLE
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C).
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72, BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE AS ADDITIONAL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE
UKMET, GALWEM AND NAVGEM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE
THROUGH A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN INDIA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS NOTEWORTHY, BUT HAS A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRING. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 05A MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES. BASED ON NOTED DISCREPANCIES IN
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

io0519.gif 05A_300600sair.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-10-30 13:34 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD編號ARB04
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