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25P.Harold 南太平洋史上最強4月TC

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2020-3-30 15:01 | 顯示全部樓層
  五級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:12 F12 U ( 25 P )
名稱:Harold

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2020 03 30 13
JTWC升格日期:2020 04 03 02
命名日期  :2020 04 02 14
                         2020 04 03 14 - FMS接續發報

撤編日期  :2020 04 12 04

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
澳洲氣象局 ( BoM ):35 kt( Cat.1 )
斐濟氣象局 (FMS):120 kt ( Cat.5 )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):145 kt ( Cat.5 )
海平面最低氣壓:912 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
90P INVEST 200330 0000 5.3S 147.1E SHEM 15 1010
134134pct6jdohhhgy614h.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2020-4-13 20:22 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2020-4-13 20:31 編輯


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CH1432307.jpg

un_reaches_out_to_pacific_post-cyclone_harold.jpg

12142238-3x2-940x627.jpg

報導指出,哈洛德是5年前帕姆後影響最重的颶風。

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-4-10 15:51 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-4-10 17:11 編輯

紐西蘭氣象局10/06Z判定已轉化為溫帶氣旋,南太平洋四月傳奇謝幕
STORM WARNING 135

THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC

AT 100600UTC

LOW 975HPA, FORMER CYCLONE HAROLD, NEAR 31S 158W MOVING

EASTSOUTHEAST 36KT.

1. WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE:

CLOCKWISE 50KT EASING NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

2. OUTSIDE AREA 1 AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN NORTHEAST

SEMICIRCLE: CLOCKWISE 40KT.

3. OUTSIDE AREAS 1 AND 2 AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN

SOUTHERN QUADRANT: CLOCKWISE 35KT EASING NEXT 6 HOURS.

STORM AND GALE AREAS MOVING WITH LOW.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 130.
NNNN

未命名.png 20200410.0621.f17.goes-17ir2.25P.HAROLD.65kts.974mb.29.1S.161.7W.050pc.jpg
20200410.0305.f18.vis.olsviscomp.25P.HAROLD.x.jpg 20200410.0621.f17.ir.goes-17ir.25P.HAROLD.65kts.974mb.29.1S.161.7W.050pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2020-4-10 10:32 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2020-4-10 10:44 編輯

紐西蘭氣象局(TCWC Wellington)10/00Z定強60kts,中心氣壓975hpa(自澳式C3降為C2)。預計6至12小時後將轉化為溫帶氣旋。
ZCZC 842
WTNZ41 NZKL 100104
STORM WARNING 130

THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 975HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3 SOUTH

160.7 WEST AT 100000 UTC.

POSITION FAIR.

REPEAT POSITION 29.3S 160.7W AT 100000 UTC.

CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 36 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 55

KNOTS BY 101200 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 110000 UTC WITH

HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN

THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE

WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 250 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN

THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN

THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY

SWELL.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 32.7S 154.0W AT 101200 UTC

AND NEAR 35.0S 146.8W AT 110000 UTC.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 125.
NNNN

f4290-1716162d800-17161961d00-17164294b00-17161961d00.png 20200410.0140.himawari-8.vis.25P.HAROLD.65kts.974mb.29.1S.161.7W.100pc.jpg 20200410.0220.goes-17.ir.25P.HAROLD.65kts.974mb.29.1S.161.7W.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-4-10 02:27 | 顯示全部樓層
Harold已開始進入轉化階段,JTWC09/12Z發布Final Warning,並預測+12H(10/00Z左右)將轉化為溫帶氣旋
WTPS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 028   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z --- NEAR 25.9S 167.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 167.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 29.1S 161.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 166.1W.
09APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
426 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 30
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG, PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE BULK OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A 091236Z GMI 36GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND TIGHTLY-CURVED
SHALLOW BANDING, HOWEVER, THE 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES ONLY LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0/5.0 (65/90 KNOTS) WITH A 091145Z ADT CI
ESTIMATE OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS). THE STRONG VWS (35 KNOTS) AND
COOLER SST (25C) ARE OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 40 KNOTS
WITH SST VALUES DECREASING TO 24C. ADDITIONALLY, TC 25P
WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ACCELERATES EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A
TIGHT GROUPING OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 12. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 32
FEET.//
NNNN

sh2520.gif 20200409.1236.gpm.composite.25P.HAROLD.85kts.964mb.26.2S.167.7W.060pc.jpg
20200409.1421.f15.37h.25P.HAROLD.80kts.968mb.25.9S.167.7W.090pc.jpg 20200409.1421.f15.85rgb.25P.HAROLD.80kts.968mb.25.9S.167.7W.090pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-4-9 16:45 | 顯示全部樓層
所處環境逐漸不利於其發展,型態開始明顯轉差,JTWC09/06Z降C2,定強95KT
FMS於09/00Z降格澳式C4,並發出最終報,將轉由紐西蘭氣象局接手負責發報
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A25 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 090733 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 12F CENTRE 960HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.8S 170.2W AT 090600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 31 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT REDUCED IN VERTICAL RADIAL
EXTENT. EYE GETTING CLOUD FILLED WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE LAST 3
TO 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. HAROLD IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN. B EYE WITH WITH LG SURROUND
WITH BANDING FEATURE, YIELDING DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=5.0.
FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.0/W1.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 27.7S 164.2W MOV ESE AT 31KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 31.1S 157.8W MOV ESE AT 32KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 34.2S 151.4W MOV ESE AT 32KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 36.9S 145.3W MOV ESE AT 31KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HAROLD WILL BE THE
RESPONSIBILITY OF TCWC, WELLINGTON.

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未命名.png goes17_ir_25P.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-4-8 23:33 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS08/12Z判定Harold重返澳式C5,定強110KT,中心最低氣壓935百帕
FKPS01 NFFN 081259
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200408/1200Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: HAROLD
ADVISORY NR: 2020/22
OBS PSN: 08/1200Z S2036 W17800
CB: WI 160NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: ESE 23KT
C: 935HPA
MAX WIND: 110KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 08/1800 S2130 W17542
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 115KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 09/0000 S2242 W17306
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 120KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 09/0600 S2348 W17024
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 115KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 09/1200 S2506 W16724
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 110KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200408/1900Z
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 081330 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 12F CENTRE 935HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.6S 178.0W AT 081200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 110 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 165 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING ONTO LLCC WITH ELONGATED EYE
DISCERNABLE ON IR IMAGERY. ORGANIZATION GOOD. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 200HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. HAROLD IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN. MG EYE WITH W
SURROUND AND BANDING FEATURE, YIELDING DT=6.5, MET AND PT=AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T6.5/6.5/D0.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 22.7S 173.1W MOV ESE AT 25KT WITH 120
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 25.1S 167.4W MOV ESE AT 26KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 28.0S 161.0W MOV ESE AT 29KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 31.1S 154.7W MOV ESE AT 29KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HAROLD WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 082000 UTC.

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2020-4-8 17:36 | 顯示全部樓層

95P

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