霧峰追風者

WTPS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 163.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 163.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 14.3S 164.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 15.0S 165.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.5S 165.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.8S 166.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.7S 168.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.2S 173.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 20.8S 179.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 164.1E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 25P CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE
AND STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN
THE SOLOMON ISLANDS AND VANUATU. A 031743Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLORPCT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND T4.0 FROM PHFO, SUPPORTED BY AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE OF T4.6. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT TC 25P LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE PROVIDING ROBUST
OUTFLOW, HIGH SSTS OF 29-30 DEG CELSIUS AND LOW-MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VWS, THOUGH THE RELATIVE VWS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AS STORM  
MOTION IS IN PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 25P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE EAST. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK
STEERING PATTERN, AS THE STR TO THE EAST RIDGES STRONGLY
SOUTHWESTWARD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS FURTHER MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48 AND THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP
LAYER TROUGH, WHILE A NEW NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED STR DEVELOPS
NEAR SAMOA, ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWEASTWARDS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS, REACHING A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND COOLER
SSTS WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL SPREAD
INCREASING, PARTICULARLY IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE NEAR-TERM STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
TAU 48, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT HOWEVER,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE NEAR-
TERM UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

jrchang5

強度迅速增強，04/00Z JTWC定強90kts(Cat.2)，FMS定強80kts(升為澳式C3)，仍持續增強中。

25P HAROLD
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 04, 2020:

Location: 13.9°S 164.0°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 966 mb

HURRICANE WARNING 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 040110 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 967HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9 SOUTH
164.3 EAST AT 040000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 13.9S 164.3E at 040000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 95 KNOTS BY
041200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.2E AT 041200 UTC
              AND NEAR 15.5S 165.7E AT 050000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 007.

霧峰追風者

HURRICANE WARNING 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 040110 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 967HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9 SOUTH
164.3 EAST AT 040000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 13.9S 164.3E at 040000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 95 KNOTS BY
041200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.2E AT 041200 UTC
AND NEAR 15.5S 165.7E AT 050000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 007.

霧峰追風者

HURRICANE WARNING 007 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 031919 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 983HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4 SOUTH
163.6 EAST AT 031800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.4S 163.6E at 031800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY
040600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.5S 164.5E AT 040600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.2S 165.2E AT 041800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 006.

老農民版夜神月

25P型態已大幅好轉,強度開始明顯增強
JTWC預測04/00Z時25P便將達標C1,約05/00Z前後達C2,其巔峰將達90KT

TPPS11 PGTW 031811

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)

B. 03/1740Z

C. 13.28S

D. 163.91E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .95 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   BERMEA

老農民版夜神月

FMS於03/0600Z開始接手發報
目前25P已將92P併入系統,未來將朝東南方向移動,進逼萬那杜

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8 SOUTH
162.2 EAST AT 030600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.8S 162.2E at 030600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY
031800 UTC AND INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY 040600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.3S 163.7E AT 031800 UTC
AND NEAR 14.4S 164.7E AT 040600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

jrchang5

中心已通過東經160度，BoM已發出最終報，將由FMS接續發報。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0144 UTC 03/04/2020
Name: Tropical Cyclone Harold
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 160.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [101 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  03/0600: 11.3S 161.7E:     040 [080]:  035  [065]:  996
+12:  03/1200: 12.2S 162.6E:     055 [100]:  045  [085]:  990
+18:  03/1800: 12.9S 163.4E:     065 [125]:  050  [095]:  983
+24:  04/0000: 13.6S 164.0E:     080 [145]:  055  [100]:  978
+36:  04/1200: 14.5S 164.9E:     100 [185]:  075  [140]:  969
+48:  05/0000: 15.1S 165.3E:     120 [220]:  080  [150]:  964
+60:  05/1200: 15.4S 165.8E:     140 [255]:  085  [155]:  959
+72:  06/0000: 15.7S 166.8E:     155 [290]:  085  [155]:  960
+96:  07/0000: 16.7S 170.5E:     200 [370]:  085  [155]:  962
+120: 08/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
TC Harold has continued to show improved organisation over the last 12-24 hours.
The current intensity is based on curved band wrap of 0.6 yielding a DT of 3.0.
MET is 2.5 and PT 2.5 FT based on DT. CI maintained at 3.0.

The system is being steered towards the east-southeast by a weak upper low to
the south. A slight curve to the south is likely from late today as the upper
low weakens and the mid level ridge to the east temporarily builds a little.
These features are likely to weaken over the weekend, with the motion of the
cyclone becoming significantly slower, before a new upper trough developing and
moving east over the Tasman Sea leads to a renewed acceleration to the
southeast.

TC Harold will remain in a very favourable environment for intensification over
the next 48 hours, within an area of weak vertical shear underneath an upper
ridge, excellent upper outflow both poleward and equatorward, and over SSTs of
around 30 degrees celsius. Statistical RI guidance is extremely favourable for a
period of rapid intensification in the next 24 to 36 hours. The forecast calls
for intensification at a greater than climatological rate over this period,
followed by a plateauing early next week when proximity to the upper trough may
begin to inhibit further intensification of the system as vertical shear
increases. It should be noted that development at an even faster rate than
forecast is possible, which could bring the system to category 4 or above near
the central islands of Vanuatu.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system as it has now moved into Nadi
RSMC's area of responsibility [east of the Australian Eastern Region].

霧峰追風者

WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 159.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 159.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 11.4S 161.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 12.7S 163.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 13.9S 164.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 14.6S 164.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.3S 165.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.1S 167.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 17.4S 171.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 160.0E.
02APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
694 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE TURNING OBSERVED IN EIR IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 021755Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC AND A REGION OF DEEP  CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE EIR,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-3.0 (30-45 KTS) BASED
ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 25P. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS NEAR-RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL BUILD IN AND TAKE OVER THE STEERING, TURNING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARD WHILE SLOWING THE SYSTEM SPEED. AROUND TAU 72, TC 25P
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, CAUSING
THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE ALONG AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, TC 25P IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 85 KTS BY TAU 96, SUPPORTED BY
THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, POSSIBLY DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. NAVGEM IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER, TURNING TC 25P
POLEWARD BY TAU 12. CONVERSELY, THE UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL MAJORITY. DUE
TO THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 020600).//
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