jrchang5

JTWC 02/18Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 25P，中心逐漸逼近索羅門群島。

25P HAROLD
As of 18:00 UTC Apr 02, 2020:

Location: 9.9°S 159.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

老農民版夜神月

JTWC02/0600Z發布TCFA;BoM將其升格為澳式C1,命名Harold,巔峰上望85KT

WTPS21 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 156.4E TO 12.0S 162.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8S 156.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.4S 153.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 156.7E, APPROXIMATELY 221
NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020346Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). 90P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW,
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 90P WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030600Z.//
NNNN

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0728 UTC 02/04/2020
Name: Tropical Cyclone Harold
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.8S
Longitude: 156.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [135 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  02/1200: 10.2S 157.6E:     040 [075]:  040  [075]:  994
+12:  02/1800: 10.6S 158.4E:     045 [085]:  045  [085]:  991
+18:  03/0000: 11.0S 159.3E:     055 [100]:  050  [095]:  988
+24:  03/0600: 11.4S 160.3E:     060 [110]:  050  [095]:  988
+36:  03/1800: 12.3S 161.9E:     075 [140]:  060  [110]:  981
+48:  04/0600: 13.3S 163.1E:     090 [165]:  065  [120]:  977
+60:  04/1800: 14.3S 163.7E:     110 [200]:  070  [130]:  972
+72:  05/0600: 14.8S 163.8E:     125 [235]:  075  [140]:  967
+96:  06/0600: 15.2S 164.4E:     170 [315]:  085  [155]:  958
+120: 07/0600: 16.1S 167.5E:     260 [480]:  080  [150]:  965
REMARKS:
The system has shown rapid intensification over the last six hours and is
breaking Dvorak constraints. Very tight curvature of a persistent, deep
convective band into the centre is evident on visible and EIR imagery.
Confidence in the centre location is high.

A 3 hour average of 0.6 curved band wrap yields a DT of 3.0, and the 0.6 curved
band wrap is also supported by the 02/0501Z SSMI microwave pass. 01/2247Z ASCAT
pass revealed 30kt wind barbs to the south of the centre, suggesting NWP is
underestimating the system intensity. SHIPS is also underestimating current
intensity based on satellite signatures.

The system is being steered towards the southeast by an upper trough to the
west, which is also providing good poleward outflow.  This upper trough will be
the main steering influence with fairly steady southeast motion expected over
the coming days.

TC Harold will remain in a very favourable environment for intensification over
the next 48 hours, within a narrow band of low shear underneath an upper ridge,
with SST values of around 30 degrees celsius. Eventual proximity to the upper
trough late in the weekend or early next week may begin to inhibit further
intensification of the system, however intensification to category 4 strength
can not be ruled out at this stage.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/1330 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

jrchang5

JTWC 01/01Z提升評級至Medium。

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.7S 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 153.8E, APPROXIMATELY 400
NM EAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 311951Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH SCATTERED, FLARING CONVECTION. 90P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jrchang5

JTWC 31/00Z評級Low。

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2S
149.3E, APPROXIMATELY 237 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA
NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301821Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
SOME FLARING CONVECTION. 90P IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.