king111807

JTWC發佈TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 080100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 96.3W TO 14.3N 103.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 97.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
95.5W, APPROXIMATELY 361 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BANDING TO THE NORTH. A 071952Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE MSI, REVEALING FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 071620Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT
TROUGHING WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE LLCC.
91E IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91E WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, NAVGEM IS AN OUTLIER, SHOWING INCREASED
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090100Z.//
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霧峰追風者

初使定位錯誤。

91E INVEST 200807 1200  12.5N   95.5W EPAC   20  1009

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.  Environmental conditions are forecast to
become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form early next week while the system
moves generally west-northwestward, offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.