Heigo

JMA GW

霧峰追風者

WTPN21 PGTW 271100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 141.7E TO 16.1N 137.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8N 141.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.4N 141.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY
234 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND TURNING AROUND AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270656Z SSMIS 91GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS LOWER LEVEL BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 99W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS AND CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
(10-15KT)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 99W WILL GRADUALLY TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH, STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281100Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12N 140E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 224 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 260012Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LLC. FURTHERMORE, THE WIND FIELD DEPICTED IN A 262351Z ASCAT-B PASS
DEPICTS WEAK (5-10 KTS) WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER, AND STRONGER (25-30 KTS) WINDS PRESENT ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 99W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM (30 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JMA升格TD
99W未來的路徑走向趨勢依然和最近幾個颱風類似，走通過菲中群島後再登越南路線

dom

JMA預測一天後TD，兩大數值也支持過菲後有所發展

老農民版夜神月

晚間風場圖顯示99W目前結構仍較為散亂
不過數值系集對於其後期發展有不錯的訊號


（系集中位於遠洋，較右側的系統，左側為98W）

霧峰追風者

JTWC 06Z評級Low。

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N
156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230251Z ASMR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK,
INDISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION. A 232335Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. INVEST 99W IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) BUT DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

GFS 數值最新一報上望948百帕，並通過呂宋島進入南海。