霧峰追風者

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 91.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3S 88.8E, APPROXIMATELY 968 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN 111901Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOW LEVEL
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. INVEST 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Heigo

JTWC Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8S
88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1074 NM WEST OF JAKARTA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZING FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY
OBSCURING AN ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091530Z
ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS 15-20 KTS WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
ROBUST POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 28-29C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.