老農民版夜神月

底層愈來愈紥實，但高層仍未有開眼跡象
已移入斐濟氣象局責任區，BoM發布最終報

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0623 UTC 01/02/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lucas
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.5S
Longitude: 160.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [112 deg]
Speed of Movement: 16 knots [29 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  01/1200: 15.0S 161.9E:     030 [055]:  060  [110]:  981
+12:  01/1800: 15.9S 163.4E:     060 [105]:  065  [120]:  977
+18:  02/0000: 16.8S 164.7E:     065 [120]:  070  [130]:  973
+24:  02/0600: 17.7S 165.7E:     075 [135]:  065  [120]:  976
+36:  02/1800: 19.5S 167.3E:     085 [160]:  050  [095]:  984
+48:  03/0600: 21.0S 167.7E:     105 [195]:  045  [085]:  985
+60:  03/1800: 22.0S 167.5E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  988
+72:  04/0600: 22.9S 166.7E:     130 [245]:  040  [075]:  988
+96:  05/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 06/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
None.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system as it has moved out of
Eastern Region warning area.

dom

逐漸離開BoM責任範圍，JTWC新報認為只能稍微增強至60節隨後逐漸減弱

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 14.0 degrees South, 158.4 degrees East .
Movement: east southeast at 28 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Lucas is expected to gradually turn towards the southeast, outside Eastern Region warning area [160 degrees East].
The cyclone is expected to intensify in the short term, before beginning to weaken and transition into a subtropical cyclone during Tuesday.

老農民版夜神月

BoM持續上望澳式C3(65KT),JTWC則略調低上望為70KT

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1929 UTC 31/01/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lucas
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.3S
Longitude: 157.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 20 knots [37 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  01/0000: 13.4S 159.3E:     045 [085]:  050  [095]:  985
+12:  01/0600: 14.1S 161.1E:     060 [105]:  055  [100]:  982
+18:  01/1200: 14.8S 162.9E:     065 [120]:  060  [110]:  979
+24:  01/1800: 15.8S 164.6E:     075 [135]:  065  [120]:  979
+36:  02/0600: 18.1S 167.1E:     085 [160]:  060  [110]:  979
+48:  02/1800: 20.0S 168.3E:     105 [195]:  050  [095]:  982
+60:  03/0600: 21.4S 168.9E:     120 [220]:  045  [085]:  984
+72:  03/1800: 22.3S 168.8E:     130 [245]:  040  [075]:  986
+96:  04/1800: 23.4S 167.7E:     165 [310]:  035  [065]:  992
+120: 05/1800: 24.6S 166.3E:     195 [355]:  030  [055]:  997
REMARKS:
Position fair based on animated IR satellite imagery and recent Ascat and amsr2
passes. The satellite presentation has been poor over the past 6 hours, with the
system struggling to produce or maintain consistent deep convection near the
centre, and only weak curvature has been evident recently. Dvorak analysis was
based on an unclear, messy curved band pattern with 0.4 wrap. FT biased to
MET/PAT.

An Ascat pass at 0951 UTC depicted maximum winds of 50 to 55 knots near the
centre, and a compact vortex with radius of gales less than 60 nautical miles in
all quadrants. Current intensity has been maintained at 50 knots based on this
data.  

Outflow remains good to the north and southeast, but is restricted in western
quadrants as an upper trough to the southwest interacts with the system. Deep
moist air surrounds the tropical low and vertical wind shear remains relatively
weak over the system centre, consistent with what little deep convection there
has been developing over all flanks of the system, and overall the environment
appears supportive of continued development, despite the recent stall in this
trend. The upper trough is forecast to move closer and amplify late today and
Tuesday, leading to an increase in vertical shear over the system. Sea surface
temperatures are warm at around 30C. Intensification at the standard rate is
forecast for the next 12-24 hours, before beginning to weaken from Tuesday as
vertical shear increases, however this weakening may be quite a slow process,
with the system deriving baroclinic energy from the upper trough, and likely
transitioning to a subtropical cyclone structure.  

The system will continue to be steered by the westerly monsoon flow and the
upper level trough, with the latter becoming dominant as the cyclone moves east
of the Eastern Region border [160 degree longitude] on Monday. This arrangement
may force
the cyclone to curve towards the south as it gets closer to Vanuatu.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0130 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

從風場掃描上來看，於傍晚開始可能已有十分接近C1及澳式C3的實力

dom

BoM將其升格為澳式C2，JTWC12Z亦定強至55/987，認為還能再稍微增強

17P.LUCAS.21013112.55kts.987mb.13.1S.155.2E.

FKAU05 ADRM 311322
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210131/1200Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: LUCAS
ADVISORY NR: 2021/1
OBS PSN: 31/1200Z S1318 E15524
CB: WI 80NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: E 08KT
INTST CHANGE: NC
C: 991HPA
MAX WIND: 50KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 31/1800 S1318 E15642
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 01/0000 S1336 E15818
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 01/0600 S1418 E16000
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 01/1200 S1500 E16148
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 65KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20210131/1900Z

dom

BoM命名Lucas

2021-01-31 06Z
- LUCAS (11U) -
Position: 13.9S 153.1E
Intensity: 35kt 994hPa

Headline:

Tropical cyclone Lucas has formed in the Coral Sea, well east of Cape York Peninsula, and is moving east away from the Queensland coast.


Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Lucas at 4:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South, 153.1 degrees East , 430 kilometres northeast of Willis Island and 870 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown .
Movement: east at 13 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Lucas is expected to continue moving eastwards while intensifying further.

dom

JTWC升格17P
17P.INVEST.21013100.40kts.993mb.13.9S.152.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING #1
WTPS33 PGTW 310300
310000Z POSIT: NEAR 13.9S 152.3E
MOVING 090 DEGREES TRUE AT 08 KNOTS
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
31/00Z, WINDS 040 KTS, GUSTS TO 050 KTS
31/12Z, WINDS 050 KTS, GUSTS TO 065 KTS
01/00Z, WINDS 065 KTS, GUSTS TO 080 KTS
01/12Z, WINDS 070 KTS, GUSTS TO 085 KTS
02/00Z, WINDS 075 KTS, GUSTS TO 090 KTS
03/00Z, WINDS 060 KTS, GUSTS TO 075 KTS
04/00Z, WINDS 045 KTS, GUSTS TO 055 KTS
05/00Z, WINDS 030 KTS, GUSTS TO 040 KTS

dom

BOM預計+24命名，上望澳式C3