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JTWC12Z降格TS，BoM定強澳式C2下限

22S MARIAN 210303 1200 19.3S 92.1E SHEM 50 985

TPXS10 PGTW 031228

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN)

B. 03/1145Z

C. 18.93S

D. 92.18E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5.. MET AND PT YIELD 3.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS

At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Marian was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal one south (19.1S)
longitude ninety two decimal zero east (92.0E)
Recent movement : east southeast at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 983 hPa

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm March 3	2	19.1S	92.0E	55
+6hr	2 am March 4	2	19.6S	92.5E	80
+12hr	8 am March 4	2	20.1S	93.1E	90
+18hr	2 pm March 4	2	20.7S	93.5E	95
+24hr	8 pm March 4	2	21.3S	94.0E	100
+36hr	8 am March 5	1	22.8S	94.7E	110
+48hr	8 pm March 5	1	24.2S	95.4E	150
+60hr	8 am March 6	tropical low	25.6S	95.7E	195
+72hr	8 pm March 6	tropical low	26.6S	96.2E	270

老農民版夜神月

06Z再大舉下調定強至C1下限65節，即將減弱為TS

22S MARIAN 210303 0600 19.1S 91.4E SHEM 65 975

老農民版夜神月

JTWC00Z降格C1

22S MARIAN 210303 0000 18.9S 90.9E SHEM 80 969

老農民版夜神月

BoM00Z降澳式C2

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Niran was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal seven south (14.7S)
longitude one hundred and forty seven decimal seven east (147.7E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds   : 55 knots
Central pressure: 978 hPa

老農民版夜神月

雲圖上看型態已經完全崩潰,將開始較為快速地減弱

TPXS10 PGTW 022134

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN)

B. 02/2045Z

C. 18.94S

D. 90.65E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T3.5/4.5/W1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 44NM FROM LLCC
YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT YIELD 3.5. DBO MET

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   YOUNG

老農民版夜神月

6小時內最新底層圖

老農民版夜神月

對於強度,JTWC與BoM於今日呈現了完全不同步的情況,JTWC(BEST)過去一整天強度始終維持在C2,且18Z至06Z均定強90節
並沒有今早00ZBoM突然升格澳4又在下一報隨即判定降格之類的事

SH, 22, 2021030112, , BEST, 0, 182S, 897E, 85, 966, TY, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 30, 35, 1004, 225, 20, 0, 30, S, 0, , 0, 0, MARIAN, D,
SH, 22, 2021030118, , BEST, 0, 184S, 895E, 90, 961, TY, 34, NEQ, 155, 160, 155, 145, 1004, 225, 20, 0, 30, S, 0, , 0, 0, MARIAN, D,
SH, 22, 2021030200, , BEST, 0, 185S, 895E, 90, 964, TY, 64, NEQ, 35, 35, 0, 0, 1007, 355, 17, 0, 25, S, 0, , 0, 0, MARIAN, D,
SH, 22, 2021030206, , BEST, 0, 186S, 896E, 90, 964, TY, 34, NEQ, 165, 160, 150, 115, 1007, 360, 17, 0, 25, S, 0, , 0, 0, MARIAN, D,

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BoM降格澳式C3

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 18.6 degrees South, 89.7 degrees East , 1050 kilometres southwest of Cocos Island .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian is moving very slowly over the Indian Ocean. It is expected to turn towards the southeast and gradually weaken as it moves over cooler waters during the next 2 days.