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JTWC上修00Z強度至45節，初報上望80節
22S TWENTYTWO 210226 0000 14.2S 100.4E SHEM 45 999 TPXS10 PGTW 260254
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22S (S OF COCOS ISLAND)
B. 26/0220Z
C. 13.91S
D. 99.23E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AT 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/2336Z 14.20S 100.47E SSMS
GOODMAN WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 100.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 100.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.4S 97.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.9S 95.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.2S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.4S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.4S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.4S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 99.7E.
26FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
919 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED
WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 252336Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE, THE ABOVE ANIMATION, AND AMIDST A TIGHT GROUPING
OF AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE
DVORAK AGENCY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM RESIDING EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ENVELOPED IN A SMALL REGION OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC AND OVERALL INTENSIFICATION
PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROCEED ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE STR TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TURN AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS, THEN MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO
THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU
120. THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 90NM
THROUGH TAU 24, INCREASING TO 280 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE HIGHER
SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID
SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE EUROPEAN MODELING GUIDANCE
OVER THE EXTREME LEFT OUTLIER OF NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.//
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