老農民版夜神月

NHC升格12L

AL122021 - Tropical Depression TWELVE

老農民版夜神月

FWC-N發布TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 311300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT //
RMKS/1.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 16.9W TO 10.0N 21.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 16.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION, THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVERNIGHT. ENVIORNMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORECAST TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 011300Z.
//

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望已提升至90%

1. A well-defined low pressure system is located over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic more than 200 miles southwest of the coast of
Guinea.  Associated shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning
to show some signs of organization, and environmental conditions
are conducive for additional development of this system. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the
low moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

數值看好後期強度發展