(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.9N 106.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 107.1E, APPROXIMATELY 357
NM SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 151106Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N
106.9E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM NORTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL,
150000Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES,
OFFSET BY LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY TRACK
WESTWARD OVER THE 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
