WTPN21 PGTW 260200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 135.1E TO 14.8N 126.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.0N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 935 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 260011Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEALS A
NICE SIZED WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOTS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LLCC WITH A
PLETHORA OF 25-30 KNOTS WINDS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN SECTION. 93W STILL
HAS SOME WORK TO DO TO GET DOWN TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED AND VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND INCREASES IN THE 850MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS ARE IN
ALIGNMENT THAT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION WILL
CONSOLIDATE MORE INTO A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, AND RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS IT WANDERS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270200Z.
//
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