c789654

日期(UTC)        位置        中心氣壓 (hPa)        最大風速
(m/s)        15 m/s
半徑
(km)        強度        規模        移動方向        移動速度(km/h)        70%概率的半徑(km)
Lat
(N)        Lon
(E)        m/s        km/h
2011.09.21. 06:00 Analysis        34.9         137.8         955        41        147.6        420
(NW 400)         Strong        Medium        NE        46       
2011.09.22. 06:00 Forecast        43.2         147.0         980        31        111.6        220
(W 180)         Normal        Small        NE        51        150
2011.09.23. 06:00 Forecast        50.7         158.9         992                                                ENE        51       

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WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS TY 18W ROARING PAST THE SOUTHERN TIP OF WAKAYAMA
PREFECTURE ON A STEADY NORTHEASTERLY BEARING. DESPITE THE DOWNWARD
INTENSITY TREND, THE MSI REVEALS A STRONG EYEWALL WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CORE. A 202036Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS
THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A MICROWAVE EYE AS WELL AS THICK
CONCENTRIC BANDING AROUND THE EYEWALL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS PRONOUNCED STRETCHING IN THE UPPER CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, INDICATING TY 18W IS ENTERING A ZONE OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THE BENEFITS
OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY BE MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF
INCREASING SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 80 TO 100 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
KNES, PLUS A SHIP REPORT OF 80 KTS FROM VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF
THE STORM NEAR 202100Z. THE APPROACH OF TY 18W TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST OF HONSHU IS PUMPING WARM AIR INTO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AMPLIFYING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. CONSECUTIVE
SOUNDINGS FROM SHIONOMISAKI (47778) AND HACHIOJIMA (47678) SHOW
HEIGHT RISES AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF FIRM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, INDICATING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A FIRM RIDGE THAT
WILL PREVENT SHARP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE KANTO REGION
AND THAT THE WARM AND SATURATED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH TY 18W IS ADDING
VOLATILITY TO THE BOUNDARY. AN 850 MB ISOTHERM ANALYSIS CONFIRMS
THAT THE TIGHTEST ISOTHERMAL PACKING IS WELL NORTH OF THE KANTO
PLAIN AND STRONGER ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE JAPANESE ALPS.
ASSUMING CONSTANT BEARING AND SPEED, THE CENTER OF TY 18W IS HEADING
FOR HAMAMATSU WITH AN ETA NEAR 210400Z.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. AT THE SAME TIME IT ENCOUNTERS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL HONSHU, TY 18W WILL MOVE INTO A ZONE OF SHARPLY INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER BOUNDARY LAYER
IMPEDIMENTS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THOSE THREE
FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO EXERT A TREMENDOUS WEAKENING FORCE ON TY
18W, BUT ITS RAPID MOVEMENT THROUGH THE SHIZUOKA PREFECTURE AND THEN
THE KANTO PLAIN WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH STRUCTURAL
INTEGRITY TO REGENERATE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER IT MOVES OFF-SHORE
OF THE TOHOKU REGION. AT THAT POINT, THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
PROCESS WILL BE NEARLY COMPLETE AND TY 18W WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED
INTO A STORM FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT BUT DOES NOT PROPERLY ACCOUNT FOR THE STEERING
INFLUENCE THE JAPANESE ALPS WILL HAVE ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, THERE EXISTS SOME WEST BIAS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS DUE TO A MODEL PROPENSITY TO STEER TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS. FOR THOSE REASONS, THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS
EAST OF CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

c789654

熱帶氣旋預報
預報：張守峰  簽發：張 玲  2011 年 09 月 21 日 18 時
「洛克」登陸日本靜岡縣
將給日本帶來較大風雨影響

今年第15號颱風「洛克」的中心已於9月21日13時在日本靜岡縣濱松附近沿海登陸，登陸時中心附近最大風力有13級（38米/秒），中心最低氣壓為950百帕。14時其中心仍位於日本靜岡縣境內，就是北緯34.8度、東經137.9度，中心附近最大風力有13級（38米/秒），中心最低氣壓為950百帕。

預計，「洛克」將以每小時55-60公里的速度快速向東北方向移動，將先後穿過日本中部地區、關東地區和東北地區，於21日夜間進入日本以東洋面，強度緩慢減弱。

受「洛克」和南下冷空氣的共同影響，21-22日，日本將出現較嚴重的風雨天氣。21日20時至22日20時，日本以南和以東洋面、日本海及日本沿海將出現7-9級大風，「洛克」中心經過的海域和地區風力可達10-12級，陣風可達13-14級，日本中部地區、關東地區、東北地區、北海道地區等地將出現大到暴雨，部分地區還將有大暴雨。

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颱風第15號 (ロウキー)
平成23年09月21日06時45分 発表
<21日06時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        潮岬の南南西約130km
中心位置        北緯 32度25分(32.4度)
        東経 135度20分(135.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧        945hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速        65m/s(130kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        南東側 150km(80NM)
        北西側 110km(60NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 520km(280NM)
        北西側 370km(200NM)
<21日07時の推定>
大きさ        -
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        潮岬の南南西約90km
中心位置        北緯 32度40分(32.7度)
        東経 135度30分(135.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧        945hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速        65m/s(130kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        南東側 150km(80NM)
        北西側 110km(60NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 520km(280NM)
        北西側 370km(200NM)
<21日18時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        群馬県
予報円の中心        北緯 36度05分(36.1度)
        東経 138度55分(138.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 45km/h(23kt)
中心気圧        960hPa
最大風速        40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(115kt)
予報円の半徑        90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 220km(120NM)
        北西側 190km(100NM)
<22日06時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        襟裳岬の東約50km
予報円の中心        北緯 41度50分(41.8度)
        東経 143度50分(143.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 65km/h(34kt)
中心気圧        980hPa
最大風速        30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速        40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半徑        240km(130NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 370km(200NM)
        北西側 330km(180NM)
<23日03時の予報>
強さ        -
        溫帯低気圧
存在地域        オホーツク海
予報円の中心        北緯 48度10分(48.2度)
        東経 150度40分(150.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 45km/h(24kt)
中心気圧        984hPa
最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半徑        330km(180NM)

c789654

熱帶氣旋預報
預報：向純怡  簽發：張 玲  2011 年 09 月 21 日 06 時
「洛克」逐漸靠近日本本州南部沿海

今年第15號颱風「洛克」的中心9月21日02時位於日本東京西南方大約650公里的西北太平洋洋面上，就是北緯31.4度、東經134.7度，中心附近最大風力有13級（38米/秒），中心最低氣壓為955百帕。

預計，「洛克」將以每小時30-35公里的速度繼續向東北方向移動，逐漸向日本本州南部一帶沿海靠近，並有可能於21日下午到夜間在這一帶沿海登陸，強度緩慢減弱。受「洛克」和南下冷空氣的共同影響，21日08時至22日08時，東海東部海域將有5-7級大風、陣風可達8級。

c789654

WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 038   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 31.7N 134.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 134.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 35.2N 138.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 39.7N 143.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 35 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 45.0N 149.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 32.6N 135.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR
INDICATIONS THAT TY 18W HAS BEGUN TO DECLINE IN INTENSITY. CLOUD
TOPS ARE WARMING AND A RAGGED 10 NM EYE STILL EXISTS, BUT IT IS
FILLING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED STRETCHING IN
THE UPPER CLOUD SHIELD, INDICATING THE STORM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA
OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE BEGINNING OF A
WEAKENING TREND, A 201749Z TRMM IMAGE REVEALS A THICK, CONCENTRIC
EYE WALL AND ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE STORM MAY HAVE
BEGUN THE DE-INTENSIFICATION PHASE, IT STILL HAS PLENTY OF STRENGTH
LEFT, AND GIVEN THE RAPID NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY OF TY 18W, IT WILL
MAKE LANDFALL AT WELL ABOVE TYPHOON INTENSITY. AT THE SAME TIME IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL HONSHU, TY 18W WILL
MOVE INTO A ZONE OF SHARPLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS WELL
AS ENCOUNTERING THE WEAKENING EFFECTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THOSE THREE FACTORS WILL
COMBINE TO EXERT A TREMENDOUS WEAKENING FORCE ON TY 18W, BUT ITS
RAPID MOVEMENT THROUGH THE SHIZUOKA PREFECTURE AND THEN THE KANTO
PLAIN WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY
TO REGENERATE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER IT MOVES OFF-SHORE OF THE
TOHOKU REGION. AT THAT POINT, THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS
WILL BE NEARLY COMPLETE AND TY 18W WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A
HIGH-GALE TO STORM FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BUT IS NOT PROPERLY ACCOUNTING FOR THE STEERING
INFLUENCE THE JAPANESE ALPS WILL HAVE ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, THERE EXISTS SOME WEST BIAS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS DUE TO A MODEL PROPENSITY TO STEER TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS. FOR THOSE REASONS, THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS JUST AHEAD
AND EAST OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN

c789654

日期(UTC)        位置        中心氣壓 (hPa)        最大風速
(m/s)        15 m/s
半徑
(km)        強度        規模        移動方向        移動速度(km/h)        70%概率的半徑(km)
Lat
(N)        Lon
(E)        m/s        km/h
2011.09.20. 18:00 Analysis        31.7         134.7         940        46        165.6        480
(NW 230)         Very Strong        Medium        NE        32       
2011.09.21. 18:00 Forecast        39.5         142.4         980        31        111.6        250
(W 180)         Normal        Small        NE        47        150
2011.09.22. 18:00 Forecast        48.2         154.2         990                                                NE        57

c789654

中度颱風　編號第15號
國際命名  ROKE  中文譯名  洛克
》颱風現況
2011年09月21日02時
      中心位置　北緯31.7度　東經134.7度
      過去移動方向   北北東
      過去移動時速   31 公里
      中心氣壓   940 百帕
      近中心最大風速 45 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 55 公尺/秒
      七級風半徑180公里 十級風半徑50公里
》颱風預測
預測 0-12 小時平均移向移速為
     東北 時速 42 公里
     預測 09月21日14時
     中心在 北緯 35.2 度 東經 138.1 度
     70%機率半徑 130 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
     東北 時速 52 公里
     預測 09月22日02時
     中心在 北緯 39.6 度 東經 142.5 度
     70%機率半徑 230 公里
預測 24-48 小時
     溫帶氣旋