(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8N
144.2E, APPROXIMATELY 36 NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS THAT IS
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 93W IS LOCATED WITHIN THE EASTERN SIDE
OF A GYRE ENCOMPASSING THE PHILIPPINE SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH FAVORABLE (10-15KT) VWS,
VERY WARM (30-31C) SST, AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 93W RIDING
NORTHWESTWARDD ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GYRE AND SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
