1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.
