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05B.Lehar 高低層分離 登陸印度*

簽到天數: 971 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2013-11-24 13:29 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD剛剛發布最新一報
正式命名為''Lehar''
Time of issue: 0830 hours IST Dated: 24-11-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB07/2013/02
Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘LEHAR’ over Andaman Sea: Cyclone warning for
Andaman & Nicobar Islands (Orange Message)
The deep depression over south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood moved northwestward, intensified into a cyclonic storm ‘LEHAR’ and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 24 November 2013, over Andaman Sea near latitude 10.00N and longitude 95.00E, about 300 km south-southeast of Port Blair. The system would move northwestward and cross Andaman & Nicobar Islands between Hut Bay and Long Island, close to Port Blair around night of 24 November 2013. It would then emerge into southeast Bay of Bengal, intensify further gradually into a very severe cyclonic storm and to move west-northwestwards towards Andhra Pradesh coast.
Track and intensity forecasts of the system are given in the table below:
Track and intensity forecasts of the system are given in the table below:
Date/Time(IST) Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (kmph)
Category
24-11-2013/0530 10.0/95.0 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
24-11-2013/1130 10.5/94.4 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
24-11-2013/1730 11.0/93.8 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
24-11-2013/2330 11.5/93.0 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 CYCLONIC STORM
25-11-2013/0530 12.0/92.2 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
25-11-2013/1730 12.5/90.6 110-120 GUSTING TO 130 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26-11-2013/0530 13.0/89.1 120-130 GUSTING TO 140 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26-11-2013/1730 13.5/87.6 130-140 GUSTING TO 150 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
27-11-2013/0530 14.4/86.0 140-150 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
27-11-2013/1730 15.5/84.5 160-170 GUSTING TO 185 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
28-11-2013/0530 16.5/83.0 170-180 GUSTING TO 195 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
28-11-2013/1730 17.5/81.5 120-130 GUSTING TO 140 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
29-11-2013/0530 18.5/80.5 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Island




Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Island
(i)Rainfall
Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cm or more) would occur over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during 48 hrs.
(ii)Squally/Gale Winds
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands. The wind speed would gradually increase and become 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph from 24thth evening along and off this coast.
(iii)Storm Surge
Storm surge of about 1 to 1.5m height above astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Andaman & Nicobar Islands within 100 km from the landfall point.
(iv)Sea condition
Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Island becoming high from 24thth evening.
(v)Damage expected due to a cyclonic storm over Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Damage to thatched huts. Breaking of tree branches and uprooting trees causing minor damage to power and communication.
(vi)Action Suggested
Total suspension of fishing operations.
The next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 24thth November, 2013.

點評

...
今年印洋驚喜多XD  發表於 2013-11-24 15:42

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
krichard2011 + 15 可能是猛貨一隻...

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簽到天數: 971 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2013-11-24 09:24 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD半夜升格為DD
而強度認為在30kt  氣壓1002hpa
而目前所處位置風切比較弱(但沒低到0的地步...)
前方風切也有稍微增強 不過也還好啦~應該還不至於影響他太大

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簽到天數: 3280 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2013-11-24 00:47 | 顯示全部樓層

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簽到天數: 726 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

stavies|2013-11-23 22:22 | 顯示全部樓層
氣象局真是越來越有個性了
氣壓竟然用mb表示
而且IMD還沒升氣旋風暴 氣象局已經自己升了

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簽到天數: 971 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2013-11-23 19:23 | 顯示全部樓層
我想說的是...兩個機構預測路徑類似
不過這預估的強度也落差太大...
100kt V.S 57kt...

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簽到天數: 3280 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2013-11-23 16:36 | 顯示全部樓層
第一報出爐!
上看100kts /Cat.3
預估登陸點跟Helen差不多



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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
krichard2011 + 15 即時訊息!

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簽到天數: 3280 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2013-11-23 15:30 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2013-11-23 15:42 編輯

老J升格05B!!
路徑第一報還沒出來
IMD只評低壓區還沒有升深低壓



中心在安達曼海
衛星雲圖還蠻有氣勢的...渦度泛白風切中等
底層環流還要進一步整合
印度又要繃緊神經了...






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簽到天數: 3280 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2013-11-22 18:16 | 顯示全部樓層
TCFA!
FNMOC已經把他移到印度洋
現在中心應該進到孟灣了

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.7E, IS NOWLOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.1E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK,THAILAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HASBEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AFTER IT MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE MALAY PENINSULAINTO THE ANDAMAN SEA. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICT A WELL-FORMEDLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THENORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM ISSOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE(10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS ISEASILY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE.  AS THE DISTURBANCEMOVES FURTHER WEST INTO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREESCELSIUS) AND POCKETS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, THERE IS A GOODCHANCE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AREESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATEDTO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ASIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH

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