t02436

跳過Low直接升評Medium!
GFS非常樂觀...猛貨一隻
印度偏東部沿海將再度悲劇


AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N 101.6E, APPROXIMATELY 459 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA AS DEPICTED BY A 210450Z OSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY IN AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS THE DISTURBANCE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IT WILL ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-31 DEGREES CELSIUS AND POCKETS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF DEEPENING FROM VARIOUS MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.