03S.Amara 打轉後西行趨向馬達加斯加＊

SHYUDOL · 2013-12-15 11:08

MFR編號02R
強度的預估...不是很強只上望40kt
ZCZC 101
WTIO30 FMEE 150002
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/2/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2
2.A POSITION 2013/12/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 81.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 700 SE: SW: 370 NW: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/15 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2013/12/16 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/12/16 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2013/12/17 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2013/12/17 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2013/12/18 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2013/12/19 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2013/12/20 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

jwpk9899 · 2013-12-15 08:28

雲圖上整體氣旋式環流很明顯
但是對流分布的比較不對稱偏南邊

krichard2011 · 2013-12-14 16:56

LLCC目前還是有裸露的情形有待改善
不過稍早風速已經升到30kts了
話說應該已經到了發布TCFA的標準了吧...
有可能是因為結構不佳

t02436 · 2013-12-14 16:44

快速發展升評 Medium~

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 81.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 81.6E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND ALSO A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. A 140418Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT. A 140334Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT CORE WINDS AND 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE PERIPHERY. THIS ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES SOME HIGHER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BUT THESE APPEAR ERRONEOUS DUE TO THE HEAVY DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436 · 2013-12-14 00:16

評級LOW~~~
這片前途一片光明啊

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S 81.2E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 131017Z NOAA-18 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES, PRIMARILY, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO THE ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 130440Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 130636Z OCEANSAT IMAGE REVEAL AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHARP MONSOON TROUGH WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.