12P.Edna 漸入高緯轉化中＊

krichard2011 · 2014-2-4 17:53

FNMOC更新終於恢復正常了
反而換成NRL出了一點狀況 = =
從底層掃描來看
這個系統的低層結構雖然來是略鬆散
不過看得出來有開始整合起來的趨勢
螺旋性也比之前改善了一些...

t02436 · 2014-2-4 17:24

節錄部分報文
THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8
SOUTH 160.1 EAST AT 040600 UTC.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO45 KNOTS BY 041800 UTC.
FMS認為06Z跨越160E進到其責任區
並立即重新升格
名稱依舊是Edna
18Z上望45KT

t02436 · 2014-2-4 09:31

為什麼TCFA的帖不見了= =

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
153.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 157.4E, APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031642Z NOAA-18
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, BEGINNING TO TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436 · 2014-2-4 09:28

補充一點

The system is situated well off the Queensland coast and it is not likely to directly affect Queensland's weather.

18Z為BoM最後一次發報

預計將移入160E
將改由FMS發布
FMS已做出High評

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

路徑還沒出來補個18Z BoM最後一張

甜心 · 2014-2-3 18:42

這是隻小旋風風暴呢未來強度€可能增強到cat1~cat2級，後期路徑目前看起來大至還是以澳洲東北外海繞一圈後回馬槍撲向澳洲東北沿海地區機率比較高。

martin191919 · 2014-2-3 15:29

TXPS21 KNES 030616
TCSWSP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93P)

B.  03/0532Z

C.  14.0S

D.  154.1E

E.  THREE/MTSAT

F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS/TMI

H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0.
MET AND PT AGREE.  FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

03/0011Z 14.2S 152.6E TMI

...KIBLER

krichard2011 · 2014-2-3 12:59

Edna 又復活了
未來預測迴轉上看澳式C1
不過強度方面不是很看好...

t02436 · 2014-2-3 08:19

重升Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2S
150.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CENTRALIZED
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE
AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CARPENTARIA TO THE SOUTHERN SOLOMON ISLANDS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
BETWEEN THE TWO MAJOR ANTICYCLONE NODES OF THE RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM