23P.Ita 澳洲本季最強登陸澳洲昆士蘭

krichard2011 · 2014-4-10 15:09

爆發增強短短幾個小時從澳式C3
增強到現在的澳式C5 @@
而且預測還還會持續增強..
不排除挑戰今年南太風季最強
此外JTWC也升格C4 (115 kts)

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0656 UTC 10/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.6S
Longitude: 147.0E
Location Accuracy: within 5 nm [15 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]
Central Pressure: 935 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [25 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  10/1200: 13.0S 146.3E:    020 [035]:  115  [215]:  928
+12:  10/1800: 13.7S 145.8E:    030 [055]:  120  [220]:  922
+18:  11/0000: 14.3S 145.4E:    045 [080]:  120  [220]:  922
+24:  11/0600: 14.9S 145.0E:    055 [105]:  120  [220]:  922
+36:  11/1800: 16.1S 144.5E:    075 [140]:  080  [150]:  964
+48:  12/0600: 17.2S 144.6E:    095 [175]:  035  [065]:  996
+60:  12/1800: 18.6S 145.5E:    115 [215]:  030  [055]: 1000
+72:  13/0600: 19.9S 147.4E:    135 [250]:  030  [055]: 1001
+96:  14/0600: 22.1S 152.6E:    180 [330]:  030  [055]: 1000
+120: 15/0600: 24.0S 156.4E:    265 [495]:  030  [055]:  998
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on an eye pattern with
a white surround and an added 0.5 for a dark grey eye combined with a white
surround, giving a DT of 6.5. The average DT over the last 3 hours is 6.5 also.
MET and PAT both give 6.0.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita has intensified significantly today with the system
now exhibiting a clear eye pattern on the recent satellite imagery. Deep
convection has developed further near the inner core of the system with very
cold cloud top temperatures now surrounding a well defined warm eye in the
infrared satellite imagery. The system remains situated in a low vertical wind
shear environment with sea surface temperatures greater than 28 degrees. CIMSS
upper winds depict very good outflow above the system, which has allowed
intensification to occur today. ADT is following this intensifying trend with a
greater than a 100 knot system being analysed.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is being steered towards the west-southwest under
the influence of a mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea and up
over the Solomon Islands. The system has been moving faster than forecast and
quicker than any of the computer model guidance is indicating, so therefore some
persistence has been paid to the short term forecast track. The mid-level ridge
is expected to erode into Friday, which should then lead to the system
developing a southwest track prior to landfall along the far north Queensland
coast. Most of the global computer models are now indicating that the system
will cross the far north Queensland coast late Friday between Cape Melville and
Cooktown.

krichard2011 · 2014-4-10 13:50

BoM 於剛剛將Ita升格為四級熱帶氣旋
非正報修正強度還挺少見的
風眼大致已經清空而且還是個針眼
不排除挑戰五級...

krichard2011 · 2014-4-10 09:44

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-4-10 10:20 編輯

風眼正式開啟底層風眼已相當清晰
但高層眼還有待清空
不過過不久櫻姐會開始轉清晰
連BoM也認為不能排除有上看澳式C5的可能...

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0058 UTC 10/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.1S
Longitude: 147.9E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [25 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  10/0600: 12.4S 147.2E:    025 [045]:  090  [165]:  955
+12:  10/1200: 12.7S 146.5E:    035 [065]:  095  [175]:  950
+18:  10/1800: 13.2S 146.1E:    050 [090]:  100  [185]:  944
+24:  11/0000: 13.7S 145.6E:    060 [115]:  105  [195]:  940
+36:  11/1200: 14.7S 144.8E:    080 [150]:  100  [180]:  942
+48:  12/0000: 15.6S 144.1E:    100 [185]:  055  [100]:  967
+60:  12/1200: 16.5S 144.1E:    120 [220]:  035  [065]:  992
+72:  13/0000: 17.5S 144.9E:    140 [255]:  030  [055]:  999
+96:  14/0000: 18.7S 148.4E:    185 [340]:  030  [055]: 1000
+120: 15/0000: 20.3S 151.6E:    270 [500]:  040  [070]:  994
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on an eye pattern with
a white surround and a subtraction of 1.0 for a black eye combined with a white
surround, giving a DT of 5.0. MET and PAT are 6.0 and 5.5 respectively.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita has shown signs of intensifying over the last few
hours with warming beginning to occur in the middle of cirrus shield that has
been covering the system over much of the last 12 hours. The system remains
situated in a low vertical wind shear environment with sea surface temperatures
greater than 28 degrees. CIMSS upper winds depict very good outflow above the
system, which should allow intensification into a category 4 to occur today. The
STIPS guidance has capped the intensity of the system to no more than 105 knots
[1 minute], but intensification into a category 5 cannot be ruled out prior to
landfall.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is being steered towards the west-southwest under
the influence of a mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea and up
over the Solomon Islands. The mid-level ridge is expected to erode into Friday,
which should then lead to the system developing a southwest track prior to
landfall along the far north Queensland coast. Most of the global computer
models are now indicating that the system will cross the far north Queensland
coast late Friday between Cape Sidmouth and Cooktown.

krichard2011 · 2014-4-9 21:26

JTWC 這報升格C2 90KTS
CDO仍在持續爆發
晚間高層眼順利的話有機會開始清空
進一步增強大概就在明後兩天
稍早有疑似風眼即將開啟的樣子
不過又蓋住了...

krichard2011 · 2014-4-9 19:36

底層風眼大致建置與緊縮完成
惟南方還有一點小缺現有待補齊
順利的話過不久應該就能睜眼了

krichard2011 · 2014-4-9 16:09

稍早最新一張較清晰的底層掃描來看
強對流總算是繞完一圈了
CDO對流也持續爆發當中
未來逐漸西移陸地的干擾可望逐漸降低...

krichard2011 · 2014-4-9 15:04

預測巔峰強度稍調降
依據BOM的報文指出
今天由於很接近巴布亞紐幾內亞
受到地形的干擾發展上有受到阻礙
不過當這系統移到了昆士蘭外海
諸多條件相當符合她的發展
預期星期四、五將有一波快速增強的階段
也是她能增強到多強的重要關鍵。。。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0646 UTC 09/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.3S
Longitude: 150.2E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west [281 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 963 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  09/1200: 11.4S 149.3E:    025 [045]:  085  [155]:  962
+12:  09/1800: 11.7S 148.3E:    035 [065]:  090  [165]:  960
+18:  10/0000: 12.0S 147.5E:    050 [090]:  095  [170]:  955
+24:  10/0600: 12.3S 146.9E:    060 [115]:  100  [180]:  950
+36:  10/1800: 12.9S 145.8E:    080 [150]:  105  [190]:  944
+48:  11/0600: 13.7S 144.9E:    100 [185]:  105  [195]:  941
+60:  11/1800: 14.6S 144.3E:    120 [220]:  095  [175]:  951
+72:  12/0600: 15.6S 144.2E:    140 [255]:  055  [100]:  982
+96:  13/0600: 17.8S 145.0E:    185 [340]:  030  [050]: 1002
+120: 14/0600: 20.0S 148.1E:    270 [500]:  030  [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
The Dvorak analysis of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on an embedded
centre pattern with a LG surround, giving a DT of 4.5. MET and PAT give 5.0 and
4.5 respectively. FT weighted towards MET due to the pattern type used for the
analysis.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is situated in a low vertical wind shear environment
with sea surface temperatures greater than 28 degrees. These atmospheric and
oceanographic conditions are expected to remain fairly constant along Ita's
current forecast track towards the far north Queensland coast and should allow
the system to intensify during Thursday and Friday. In the short term,
intensification may be difficult for Ita today due to the systems proximity to
Papua New Guinea.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is currently moving in a general westwards direction
under the influence of a mid-level ridge extending from Queensland into the
central Coral Sea. Ita is expected to continue moving in this general direction
over the next couple of days and at this stage it is expected to cross the far
north Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Cape Flattery late Friday.
There is a fair degree of uncertainty in the exact track Ita will take closer to
the coast with the computer model guidance varying depending on the strength and
orientation of the mid-level ridge that extends across the central Coral Sea by
Friday.