t02436

13Z提升評級至Medium

  THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
136.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LLCC. A
031023Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10
TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A
TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH SUSTAINING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION,
AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ALSO ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.1N 136.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 142 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 030103Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY BROADLY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

早上風場掃到25-30節
LLCC不明顯

陳俊閔

這是一個新的擾動西北太洋終於開始活躍後續動態也要特別注意。