t02436

稍早直接評級Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0S 99.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. A 100321Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC. A 100221Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.