陳約禮@FB

JTWC 11日05Z評級"MEDIUM"，並認為雖然風切增強但極向流出優良，風速上修為25KT

ABIO10 PGTW 110500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/110500Z-111800ZAPR2016//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
74.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION. A 110136Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC WITH
SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED CENTER. A 101609Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

環流相當細小


主要數值支持發展

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA


MFR升格熱帶低壓，預測12小時內會命名Fantala。

** WTIO20 FMEE 111234 ***
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/04/2016
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/04/2016 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8  999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 72.0 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
130 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN
THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2016/04/12 AT 00 UTC:
12.8 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2016/04/12 AT 12 UTC:
12.2 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

蜜露

EC和GFS都很看好他的發展. 可能是2015-16南半球風季最後的焦點了.




今年南半球風季,重要的1~3個月至少都有一個猛貨.  雖然時間都是分開的

Meow

命名Fantala。

1. WTIO20 FMEE 111814
   
2. SECURITE
   
3. GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
   
4. ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/04/2016
   
5. AT
   
6. 1800 UTC.
   
7. WARNING NUMBER: 003/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
8. 
   
9. 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
   
10. (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
    
11. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
    
12. (INDICATIVE FIGURE).
    
13. 
    
14. GALE WARNING
    
15. BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/04/2016 AT 1800 UTC.
    
16. 
    
17. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8  (FANTALA)  999 HPA
    
18. POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 71.2 E
    
19. (THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
    
20. SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
    
21. MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT
    
22. 
    
23. THREAT AREAS:
    
24. SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
    
25. TO 180 NM IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
    
26. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS  EXTENDING UP TO
    
27. 10 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
    
28. QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
    
29. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 20
    
30. NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
    
31. QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
    
32. IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
    
33. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
    
34. 
    
35. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
    
36. 12H, VALID 2016/04/12 AT 06 UTC:
    
37. 13.0 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
    
38. 24H, VALID 2016/04/12 AT 18 UTC:
    
39. 13.0 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
40. 
    
41. OTHER INFORMATIONS:
    
42. NIL.=

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